Monday, June 2, 2014

NHL Playoffs Predictions 2014: Stanley Cup Final [update]

The current odds from Pinnacle for the Kings to win the cup are -166, while the Rangers are +150.

Handicapping this series is pretty straightforward. The Kings are the best possession team in the league, and with the addition of Gaborik, they are essentially a complete team. The only question mark for them could be Jonathan Quick.

The Rangers hold the edge in goal and they are also curiously better on the road than at home this year. They were also only behind the Bruins in the East in possession stats.

I'll be riding out the following futures made at the start of the playoffs, so I'll be sitting this one out with the exception of some props. I'll add them to this post once lines are posted.

Stanley Cup Winner & MVP

Rangers 25-1 (.5u) 
Kings 14-1 (.5u) 

Quick 21-1 (.5u)
Kopitar 31-1 (.5u)
Lundqvist 31-1 (.5u)

I expect the Kings to win the series, but on paper the matchup is a bit closer than the odds suggest. There is some value on the Rangers in the series price, as well as game 1. If you wanted to bet the Kings for the cup you missed your chance, but if you like NY for the "upset", you're in a good spot.

At the moment I'd say Doughty is the front-runner for MVP on the Kings, but Kopitar could take it if he has a standout Final. Lundqvist is the only remaining option for the Rangers.

Adding

Odds from Pinnacle.

Kopitar more PTS than St. Louis (series) (-108) (2u)

Odds from Bodog.

Doughty to win MVP (+400) (5u) [hedging my Kopitar/Lundqvist picks]

Following all -120 and 1 unit each.

St. Louis Under 4.5 pts
Nash Under 4 pts
Zuccarello Under 4 pts
Stepan Under 4 pts
McDonagh Under 4 pts