Friday, February 21, 2014

Sochi Olympics 2014 Hockey Predictions: Gold Medal Game

Odds from Pinnacle.

Canada ML (-165) (4u) (hedge)

I'm hedging my Sweden (+450) future with Canada to win gold. If Sweden do find a way to win, there's a great chance my Erik Karlsson for MVP (+4000) will cash for some monster profit. If Lundqvist stands on his head, he'll likely get it (+1500).  Either way, it's a no-lose situation for me.

If you don't have a future on Sweden, I'd say the line and total for the game are pretty sharp, and there isn't much value on Canada ML at -165. Canada -0.5 regulation +100 offers the best value, given how dominant they looked against the U.S.A.

Sweden will need to score on the power play, get some lucky breaks, and a heroic effort from Lundqvist to win. It's definitely possible, but I think the loss of Zetterberg, H Sedin, and Franzen will be felt greatest in this one. They are also not using Oliver-Ekman Larsson as they should, not to mention they left Victor Hedman at home.