Wednesday, October 29, 2014

NHL Predictions 2014: Thursday October 30 [updated]

There's nothing I like for Wednesday. I wanted to make a play on the Predators, but the price wasn't right. This is the value I see for Thursday's games.

Odds from Pinnacle.

Bruins -1.5 PL (+117) (2u)

Coyotes/Panthers Under 5.5 (-130) (2u)

Lightning -0.5 regulation (-101) (2u)
Flyers/Lightning Over 5.5 (-113) (2u)

Blackhawks/Senators Under 5.5 (-119) (2u)

Islanders ML (+111) (2u)


Ducks ML (+102) (2u)

And if you're into analytics, there's a couple good links to check out.

This is an article today showing the correlation between possession numbers in the regular season (FenwickClose%) and playoff success. This has been shown before, but it's been updated with 4 more seasons of data.

@IneffectiveMath shows the correlation between early score-adjusted Fenwick % (SAF) and the final numbers at the end of the year. You can see that we get a pretty good idea of what teams are around the 20 game mark. Current SAF data is updated daily at this site.