Monday, April 13, 2015

NHL Playoffs 2015: Jets Vs Ducks Prediction

Winnipeg Jets Vs. Anaheim Ducks

Market Watch

The most ridiculous opening line can be found in this series. Not only do I think this line is wrong,
but I actually think the Jets should be the favorite in this matchup. The line has moved a bit, but it still sits as -158. If you like the Jets, this isn't a pick I would wait on.

Bottom Line

Are the Ducks good? Yes. Are they better than the Jets? I don't think so.

For one, Anaheim have hovered around league average in SAF% all year (51.5%). They just aren't a team that dominates the puck the way other contenders do. In contrast, the Jets sit at 53% SAF, and they increased even higher over the last 20+ games. Winnipeg can come at you with three legit lines, and they have a mobile defense that can hang with anybody.

On top of this, has any team relied more on one-goal wins or third period comebacks than the Ducks this season? The answer is no.

The only real question we all have about Winnipeg is between the pipes. Can Pavelec really maintain his .920 SV% into the post-season? Logic says no, but it's not like he's facing off against a Vezina candidate on the other side. Andersen has been really good since he's taken over the crease, but his numbers are below Pavelec at 5on5 this year, and nearly identical on the PK.  Andersen also has the added weight of fending of John Gibson, who is arguably the best young goalie prospect in the game with Andrei Vasilevskiy.

Fans in Winnipeg have waited a long time to watch their beloved Jets in the playoffs, and I think they'll have lots to cheer about this post-season. They should advance to round 2, and perhaps all the way to the big dance. I probably would've picked them at EVEN odds, but at this price? It's a no-brainer.

Pick: Jets ML (+142) (2u)

All first round series predictions